Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS61 KCLE 250606
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
206 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits to the east tonight. Low pressure will move
through the Central Great Lakes on Friday, pulling a cold front
east through the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will
build south out of Canada over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:30 PM Update...

Scattered showers are already developing up the I-77 corridor
on a band of warm air advection and isentropic ascent. Coverage
will gradually increase overnight as moisture deepens, so
increased PoPs a little faster the rest of this evening into
tonight from south to north. The rest of the forecast remains
on track.

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening with no changes
needed.

Original Discussion...

Low pressure will begin taking shape over the central Plains
tonight, lifting east-northeast into the central Great Lakes on
Friday while gradually deepening. A secondary warm front (with
greater moisture behind it) will lift north across the local
area tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the area
Friday evening and night as the low exits northeast.

For the remainder of the late afternoon and early evening,
cumulus are percolating along the lake breeze just south of the
lakeshore in North Central and Northeast Ohio, and from parts
of the Central Highlands points south. The low-levels are very
well-mixed and dry, so it`s uncertain if any isolated showers or
storms will develop in these areas through early this evening...
though do still hang on to 20% POPs to highlight the low-
confidence possibility. There will probably be a relative lull
in any shower activity later this evening (assuming we get
anything earlier...). Overnight, the approach of a very weak
shortwave and some increased low to mid-level moisture advection
behind the secondary warm front is expected to combine with
weak lingering instability to allow isolated to scattered
showers to develop/lift in from the south-southwest. Lows
tonight will mainly only fall into the low-mid 60s, though with
some 50s in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA.

The aforementioned shower activity should be ongoing to start
the day Friday...particularly from North Central OH into
Northeast OH, with activity lifting northeast into Northwest PA
during the morning. This activity will gradually exit east into
Friday afternoon. It will be a struggle to see a prolonged
period of completely dry weather across the area on Friday, as
the combination of modest heating of an unseasonably moist
airmass will allow modest but uncapped instability to develop
through the afternoon. A more well-defined shortwave will move
west-east across the area Friday afternoon/evening, with the
cold front sweeping through late Friday evening and Friday night.
Given impressively moist low-levels for April (dew points into
the 60s) and uncapped instability, it will not take much for
scattered to numerous showers and some storms to develop along
pretty much any sources of low-level convergence as broad forcing
for ascent spreads in ahead of the shortwave and cold front.
Activity may initially be fairly disorganized, but should
gradually increase in coverage and congeal into clusters by late
afternoon or early evening while gradually working east. Hi-res
models are suggesting activity will be most widespread and
intense well-ahead of the cold front during the late afternoon
and early evening before exiting east, with a trailing line of
scattered showers/thunder pushing in along the front itself
later Friday evening, which isn`t unreasonable. We will
generally trend drier from the northwest through Friday night
behind the front, though one more trough axis pushes in very
early Saturday morning, bringing one last uptick in shower
potential with it...particularly downwind of Lake Erie.

Conditions are not overly conducive to severe weather on Friday,
with MLCAPE values of no more than 1000 J/KG (and likely more
like 400-750 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 25-30kt
supporting a modest risk for an isolated stronger storm or two
with gusty winds during the afternoon/early evening.
Unseasonably high atmospheric moisture, skinny instability, and
weak mid-level lapse rates supporting low-centroid convection,
suggest efficient rain rates in any convection Friday afternoon
and evening. Some hi-res model runs (particularly the 12z and
18z HRRR) hint at some localized training with isolated rain
amounts over 3" possible, though most models suggest a lack of
organization may make those types of totals difficult to
achieve. Still, will need to monitor for what would be a
localized flash flood risk if isolated training coincides with a
more urban or otherwise prone area.

Highs on Friday will range from the upper 60s in PA to the low
to mid 70s in OH...perhaps upper 70s in Northwest OH. It will be
unseasonably humid with dew points pushing into the 60s. Late
lows Friday night will reach the upper 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered lake-enhanced showers may persist across NE OH/NW PA as
the cold front exits to the east Saturday morning into as late as
Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will taper off by Saturday evening
as Canadian high pressure builds over the region behind the front.
From there, dry weather will persist through Sunday night as a ridge
builds east from the central CONUS.

The Canadian high will usher cooler temps into the region over the
weekend with the coolest temps expected Saturday and Saturday night.
Saturday`s highs will be in the 50s, although a few spots in
northwestern and north-central OH may touch 60 degrees. Skies should
clear rather quickly Saturday night and relatively light winds will
provide an opportunity for efficient radiational cooling. Patchy to
areas of frost are possible across the Central Highlands of Ohio and
in interior NW PA Saturday night into early Sunday morning, where
overnight lows will likely fall into the mid to upper 30s. Frost
Advisories are possible across portions of north-central Ohio (the
growing season has not yet started for local PA zones).

Temps will recover to the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations
Sunday with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low to mid 40s.
Radiational cooling may result in locally cooler low temperatures in
the higher elevations of interior NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper ridge and surface high will continue to maintain influence
through Monday before a deep, positively-tilted trough moves east
out of the western CONUS Monday night. This will cause the upper
ridge axis to cross the area with a warm front lifting into the
region Monday night into the predawn hours Tuesday. Moisture may be
marginal with the warm front and in the warm sector through Tuesday
afternoon so have limited PoPs to slight chance to low-end chance
until the front begins to approach from the west Tuesday afternoon.
Still some uncertainty in the timing/placement/coverage of
precipitation, but currently thinking that shower/thunderstorm
chances will peak at some point Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. The wind field, moisture transport, and instability will be
sufficient for at least an isolated severe weather threat and
possibly a localized heavy rain threat Tuesday afternoon/evening,
however it`s still far too early to get specific with any potential
hazards. PoPs will likely taper off as the front pushes south of the
area Tuesday night, but showers may periodically sneak into southern
zones as the front slows over the Ohio Valley Wednesday. Another
wave of rain could lift into the region as early as Thursday as low
pressure tracks northeast across the Mississippi Valley.

Warm air advection will allow highs to climb well into the 70s on
Monday with widespread 80s likely on Tuesday. Temps will decrease
behind Tuesday night`s cold front with highs in the 50s and 60s
expected Wednesday and the 60s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Regional radars show showers across Central Ohio that will move
north and east through the overnight hours. While most of the
rain is light, did see IFR visibilities occur at one location
upstream and have included some tempos for MVFR visibilities.
VFR ceilings are expected to lower into Friday morning with good
coverage of MVFR developing where rain has occurred with diurnal
heating. It will take some time for the rain to clear the
eastern terminals, possibly holding on at ERI until 18Z or
later.

Meanwhile the area will gradually destabilize this afternoon
with a broad area of surface low pressure approaching from the
southwest. Models are in fairly good agreement that showers and
thunderstorms will expand in coverage from southwest to
northeast this afternoon with most locations experiencing rain
at some point. Scattered thunderstorms are expected and may
produce heavy rain at times. IFR visibilities and wind gusts to
30 knots will be possible in any thunderstorms late this
afternoon into this evening. Will need to adjust timing but
pretty good coverage or showers and thunderstorms is expected in
the 20-02Z window.

Winds will be light through 14Z, developing out of the south at
5-10 knots today. A wind shift to the west will accompany an
approaching cold front moving northwest to southeast across the
area between 01-08Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR in clouds and showers will linger late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Non-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
East/southeast winds 6 to 12 knots will continue through this
evening, although a lake breeze will result in a period of onshore
flow in the nearshore zones this afternoon into early evening.
Southeast winds will develop ahead of an approaching warm front
Friday morning and briefly shift to the southwest in the warm sector
before becoming northwesterly as a cold front moves east across the
lake Friday night. Winds will increase behind the front late Friday
into Saturday and expect sustained winds to 15 to 20 knots with
waves as high as 3 to 5 feet anticipated over most of the lake;
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Friday night through
early Saturday evening. Onshore flow will diminish below 15 knots
Saturday night with variable winds under 10 knots anticipated for
Sunday. Winds/waves will remain under Small Craft Advisory criteria
through much of Monday, but headlines may be needed as as early as
Monday night through at least Tuesday as the next system crosses the
region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15